The NHL draft lottery will be held Wednesday, and this is what’s at stake for the Sharks: The chance to draft someone who can offer immediate help, or having to wait another year or two for that help.
The Sharks, per tankathon.com, have a combined chance of about 13.6 percent of drafting first or second overall, and roughly an 86.4 percent chance of ending up with the seventh, eighth or ninth overall picks. The Sharks went 3-10-3 over the final month of the season to finish with the seventh-worst record in the NHL at 21-28-7.
The Sharks have only had three draft picks inside the top 10 in the last 16 years. They drafted Devin Setoguchi eighth overall in 2005, Logan Couture ninth overall in 2007, and Timo Meier ninth in 2015. Setoguchi and Couture both stayed in junior hockey for another two seasons after they were drafted, and Meier went one more year before he turned pro.
The last player the Sharks drafted who made a significant impact in the NHL immediately after he was drafted was Patrick Marleau, who was taken second overall as a 17-year-old in 1997.
“If you’re not picking first, second or third overall, if you’re not getting the Nathan MacKinnons, the Cale Makars, the (Sidney) Crosby’s or (Connor) McDavid’s,” Doug Wilson Jr., the Sharks’ director of scouting, said last month, “if you’re not getting those players, you have to wait three or four years to see your first-round pick be a true NHL player.”
There will be two drawings Wednesday in Secaucus, N.J. — one to determine the team that selects first overall, and the second to determine who gets the second pick. The 14 teams not selected will be assigned their draft selection 3-16 in inverse order of regular-season points. The expansion Seattle Kraken will draft no lower than fifth.
If the Sharks are not awarded the first or second overall pick, they will select seventh, eighth, or ninth. Although the Sharks ended up with the league’s seventh-worst record, they could fall back if one or two spots if another non-playoff team with a better record wins one of the draws.
Out of the deep 2020 draft, four players were able to play in NHL games this season: the top three selections in Alexis Lafreniere (Rangers), Quinton Byfield (Kings), and Tim Stützle (Senators), and sixth overall pick Jamie Drysdale (Ducks).
Wilson Jr. did not want to opine how many draft-eligible players he feels would be ready to crack an NHL roster in the fall. Although there does not appear to be a generational-type talent available in the class of 2021 like a McDavid or Crosby, there are several players who could have exceptional careers.
At 6-foot-5 and 214 pounds with a tremendous hockey IQ, University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power is considered to be the top player available. Right behind him are defenseman Simon Edvinsson and forward William Eklund, both of Sweden, WHL forward Dylan Guenther, and Michigan center Matty Beniers.
There is no guarantee that drafting any of these players – just by itself — would make the Sharks a playoff team next season. Still, earning the right to select first or second overall in the July draft would be a massive boost to a Sharks team that has just started to stock its organizational cupboards with higher-end players.
Already, the players the Sharks drafted last year are considered some of their best prospects, including Michigan center Thomas Bordeleau, WHL forwards Ozzy Wiesblatt and Tristen Robins, and USHL forward Danil Gushchin.
“Historically, the guys who go in the top five or top 10, they can help you much sooner than the guys who go lower,” Wilson said. “For that fact alone, we’re excited because whoever we draft top five or 10, their timeline will be accelerated. Probably on the same timeline, if not quicker, than where Thomas Bordeleau, Ozzy Wiesblatt, and Tristen Robins already are.
“So it helps us with our age group of getting these high-end players in all at the same time pretty soon here.”
DRAFT LOTTERY ODDS
TEAM PERCENTAGE OF WINNING NO. 1 PICK
Buffalo Sabres 16.6
Anaheim Ducks 12.1
Seattle Kraken 10.3
New Jersey Devils 10.3
Columbus Blue Jackets 8.5
Detroit Red Wings 7.6
San Jose Sharks 6.7
Los Angeles Kings 5.8
Vancouver Canucks 5.4
Ottawa Senators 4.5
Arizona Coyotes 3.1
Chicago Blackhawks 2.7
Calgary Flames 2.2
Philadelphia Flyers 1.8
Dallas Stars 1.4
New York Rangers 1.0
NOTE: The Coyotes will forfeit their first-round pick as part of sanctions the NHL announced in August of last year for violating the league’s combine testing policy during the 2019-20 season. If Arizona wins either lottery draw, a redraw will be conducted.
