Here's what stands between the Sens and the playoffs
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OTTAWAAs the Ottawa Senators hit the home stretch of the regular season, they can almost taste the playoffs. With 10 games remaining, they’re perhaps as few as three or four wins away from guaranteeing a spot in the post-season.
Thanks to the controversial format — it’s “stupid,” according to Washington’s Daniel Winnik — the Senators are also in a strong position to have home-ice advantage in a playoff series for the first time since they advanced to the Stanley Cup final in 2007.
Currently seeded second in the Atlantic Division, odds are the Senators will face the third seed, likely either Boston or Toronto. The team that loses out on third in the Atlantic earns the second wild-card spot, facing the first-place Metro team.
It’s setting up quite nicely for the Senators, especially when considering that one of the Eastern Conference’s top three teams — Washington, Pittsburgh and Columbus — is guaranteed to be eliminated in the opening round because they all play in the Metro Division.
The New York Rangers, the fourth-place team in the Metro, have a better record than all Atlantic teams, but likely will only make the post-season as a wild-card squad — without home-ice advantage.
Given a choice, would a team rather win the Atlantic Division and face the Rangers or finish second and play an opponent with fewer points?
“It’s the stupidest thing ever,” Winnik said on Twitter. “It doesn’t work. It doesn’t make sense.”
It is bizarre, but similar situations have happened before. Before divisional realignment, the rest of the Eastern Conference dealt with the fact the winner of the weaker Southeast Division was guaranteed a playoff spot and home-ice advantage in the first round.
Of course, the Senators aren’t there yet, and coach Guy Boucher has been quick to shut down talk about any potential playoff opponents.
At first blush, the final stretch of 10 games in 18 days, including a pair of back-to-back scenarios, looks imposing. There are only three home games and half the remaining games are against clubs now in playoff positions.
Dig a little deeper, though, and the hurdles don’t look quite as high.
The Senators have more wins on the road (21-13-0) than at the Canadian Tire Centre (19-11-8), partly due to a far better power play in opposition rinks (20.9% on the road, 14.7 at home).
Also, as the post-season approaches and the clubs guaranteed playoff spots take precautions with the health of their star players, nagging injuries could put top players on the sidelines.
Below, Postmedia takes a closer look at what remains:
Thursday vs. Pittsburgh: The Penguins clinched a playoff spot in Buffalo on Tuesday, but there are countless reasons to keep winning. The Penguins were in second in the Metro, sandwiched between Washington and Columbus, before Wednesday’s games. Sidney Crosby, fresh from scoring one of the prettiest goals of his career, is chasing the Art Ross, Hart and Rocket Richard trophies.
Saturday at Montreal: The Senators shouldn’t need motivation. The Canadiens outplayed them in sweeping last weekend’s home-and-away series. Perhaps right-winger Mark Stone will be back to bolster the lineup. Goaltender Craig Anderson, shaky last weekend, should want another shot at going head-to-head against Carey Price at the Bell Centre.
Tuesday at Philadelphia: The Flyers, returning home from a four-game road trip, could be officially eliminated from playoff contention by the time the puck drops. All the motivation should be on the Senators’ side as Philly sports fans have already turned their attention toward the Phillies.
Thursday, March 30 at Minnesota: The Wild were the class of the West for much of the season, but after winning only three of 11 games in March, they’re locked into second spot in the Central Division. Wins matter to goaltender Devan Dubnyk, who has a shot at capturing the Vezina Trophy.
Saturday, April 1 at Winnipeg: The out-of-conference contest against the out-of-the playoffs Jets could be an opening for backup goaltender Mike Condon to start. If you’re looking for reasons to watch the Jets, look no further than Patrick Laine, whose battle with Toronto’s Auston Matthews for the Calder Trophy should go down to the wire.
Monday, April 3 at Detroit, Tuesday, April 4 vs. Detroit: Goodbye, Joe. The Red Wings will say goodbye to the Joe Louis Arena by missing the playoffs for the first time since 1990 — eight months before the Senators were officially granted a franchise to return to the NHL. Beware: Detroit played role of spoiler Tuesday, defeating Montreal in overtime.
Thursday, April 6 at Boston: This could be fun. If everything falls into place, it could be a prelude to a first-round playoff matchup. The Senators might have already secured a playoff spot, but the Bruins might need to win to get in and stay ahead of Toronto and/or Tampa Bay and the New York Islanders.
Saturday, April 8 vs. New York Rangers: It’s a long shot, but if the Senators pass the Canadiens, they’ll get the Rangers in the first round and the Derick Brassard-Mika Zibanejad matchup will take centre stage. Zibanejad, who broke his leg early in the season, has yet to play at the Canadian Tire Centre since last summer’s trade.
Sunday, April 9 at New York Islanders: According to sportsclubstats.com, the Islanders’ chances of making the playoffs were at 24.1% before Wednesday’s game against the Rangers. If the Islanders go on a run, the regular-season finale could be pivotal. If they’re done and the Senators are in the post-season, the primary goal will be to stay healthy.
